Abstract:

The evaluation of public policies has been a long-standing concern for both the government and academia. However, most studies either focus on the effectiveness of the text or the outcomes rarely examining the complete chain from policy effectiveness to policy outcomes. This paper, based on the "dual effectiveness" mixed method, takes China's science popularization as an example, and uses panel data from 31 provinces from 2012 to 2022 to conduct empirical analysis, systematically investigating impact of policy effectiveness on policy outcomes and its mechanism. The study finds that policy effectiveness has a significant impact on policy outcomes; the level of policy effectiveness and outcomes significantly depending on the target audience, with the highest performance seen in incentive policies, followed by protective policies, and the weakest in environmental policies; among the four dimensions policy, policy measures have the greatest impact on the effectiveness of policy implementation, followed by policy feedback and policy goals. Therefore, the government should further strengthen the driving of incentive policies, improve the efficiency of incentive policy supply through revision of incentive measures. And improve the overall effectiveness and outcome of the policy by enhancing policy measures, goals, policy strength, and policy feedback. The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows:(1) By adopting a "dual-effect" mixed method, it first quantitatively measures the effectiveness of popular science policies, then analyzes the impact of policy effectiveness on policy outcomes, providing a more objective measurement of the validity of policy texts and their influence on actual implementation outcomes;(2) Starting from multiple factors influencing policy implementation outcomes, it comprehensively considers the impact of policy effectiveness, different categories of policy effectiveness, and various policy dimensions on policy execution results, in order to avoid one-sidedness and subjectivity in policy performance evaluation;(3) Using the established policy effectiveness evaluation model as a tool, a more accurate assessment of the implementation effects of different policy documents and policy instruments can be conducted.

Key words: science popularization policy, effectiveness, outcome, policy evaluation, science popularization

摘要：

公共政策绩效评估是政府部门和学术界长期关注的问题。而多数研究“就文本谈效力”,或“就效果谈效果”,很少有从政策效力到政策效果的完整链条中来审视政策绩效。本文基于“双效”混合方法,以我国科普政策为研究对象,运用2012-2022年31个省级面板数据评估政策效力对政策效果的影响及其机制。研究发现:政策效力对政策效果产生了显著影响;不同类型政策效力水平及效果均因作用对象的差异而呈现出显著差异,动力型政策最优,保护型政策次之,而环境型政策最弱;在政策的4个维度中,政策措施对政策执行效果的影响最大,政策反馈和政策目标次之。因此,政府应进一步加强动力型政策的推动作用,通过修订激励措施,增加动力型政策的供给。并从政策措施、政策目标、政策力度和政策反馈4个方面提高政策的综合效力及效果。

关键词: 科普政策, 效力, 效果, 政策评估, 科学普及