Abstract: Future energy is a critical arena for national competition, where the growing energy demands driven by artificial intelligence and the need for energy security compel China to evaluate the evolution and competitive landscape of future energy technologies, optimize strategies to enhance global competitiveness, and ensure energy self-sufficiency. Utilizing the S-curve principle of TRIZ, the study analyzes and compares the technological evolution stages of future industries at the national level, constructing a competitive potential evaluation system that includes the Technology Impact Index, Technology Growth Index, Technology Maturity Index, Technology Attention Index, and Market Attraction Potential Index. The CRITIC-Entropy Weight Method is employed to quantify the competitive potential of future industries, with an empirical validation conducted using 13 technologies in the future energy sector across China, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Results indicate that the United States leads in high-barrier fields such as controlled nuclear fusion and CCUS, with a maturity lead of 10–69 years over China; Japan and the United Kingdom hold localized advantages in virtual power plants and nuclear fission; China ranks first in competitiveness for six technologies, including deep-sea wind energy and high-efficiency photovoltaic cells, but its overall technological influence and maturity remain relatively low. The gap stems from the first-mover advantages of leading countries, while China demonstrates catch-up potential driven by its market scale and policy support. The study provides a new framework for technological competition analysis and strategic recommendations for enhancing China’s energy technology competitiveness.

摘要： 未来能源是国家竞争高地，人工智能驱动的能源需求增长与能源安全保障需求，促使中国需评估未来能源技术的演进与竞争态势，优化战略以提升国际竞争力并确保能源自给自足。基于TRIZ的S型曲线原理，分析对比国家尺度的未来产业技术演进阶段，构建包含技术影响指数、技术增势指数、技术成熟指数、技术关注指数和市场吸引潜力指数的竞争潜力评价体系，采用CRITIC-熵权法量化国家的未来产业竞争潜力，并以中美日英四国在未来能源领域13项技术为样本进行实证验证。结果表明，美国在可控核聚变、CCUS等高技术壁垒领域领先，成熟期比中国早10-69年；日本和英国在虚拟电厂、核裂变等领域具局部优势；中国在深远海风能、高效光伏电池等6项技术中竞争力排名第一，但整体技术影响力和成熟度偏低。研究为技术竞争分析提供了新方法，并为提升中国能源技术竞争力提供了战略建议。