Abstract:

Against the backdrop of global economic integration and rapid technological advancement, small and medium-sized industrial enterprises (SMEIs) have emerged as a crucial force in the national economy, with technological innovation serving as the core driving force for their development. Exploring the driving effects between the two is of great significance for policy formulation and enterprise development. This study constructs an indicator system for evaluating the technological innovation and development level of SMEIs. It employs classical cycle theory and the growth rate cycle composite index to quantitatively assess their capabilities and levels, and utilizes impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition to dissect the driving mechanisms. The findings are as follows: (1) In the classical cycle, both the technological innovation input and output indices exhibit an overall upward trend, with the output index growing at a faster pace. After a brief decline in the enterprise scale index from 2017 to 2018, growth resumed due to policy support. (2) The growth rate cycle reveals that there is a lag effect in the fluctuations of the growth rate cycle indices for input and output. The fluctuation trends of enterprise scale and innovation capability are consistent, but the scale fluctuations are more pronounced. (3) Impulse response analysis indicates that the initial impact of technological innovation input is moderate. An initial increase in the output index leads to a temporary fluctuation in enterprise development followed by an upward trend and can promote the formation of a virtuous cycle in the input index. (4) Variance decomposition shows that both the input and output indices have a four-period lag effect on enterprise development. The variance contribution rate of the output index (approximately 28%) is higher than that of the input index (6%), indicating a more significant driving role of output. Both governments and enterprises should attach great importance to technological innovation. While increasing investment, they should strengthen the monitoring of technological achievement transformation, promote technological innovation output, and drive the steady development of SMEIs.

Key words: technological innovation, innovation-driven development, small and medium-sized industrial enterprises

摘要：

在全球经济一体化与技术快速进步背景下,中小工业企业成为国民经济关键力量,科技创新是其发展核心驱动力。探究二者驱动效应对政策制定与企业发展意义重大。本研究构建中小工业企业科技创新与发展水平指标体系,运用古典循环理论、增长率循环合成指数定量评估其能力与水平,并借助脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解剖析驱动机制。研究发现:(1)古典循环中,科技创新投入与产出指数整体上升,产出指数增速更快。2017-2018年企业规模指数短暂下滑后因政策支持恢复增长。(2)增长率循环显示,投入和产出指数增长率循环指数波动有滞后效应,企业规模与创新能力波动趋势一致,但规模波动更明显。(3)脉冲响应分析表明,科技创新投入初期影响温和,产出指数初期增加会使企业发展短暂波动后上升,而且能促进投入指数形成良性循环。(4)方差分解显示,投入和产出指数对企业发展有4期滞后效应,产出指数方差贡献率(约28%)高于投入指数(6%),产出驱动作用更显著。政府和企业应高度重视科技创新,加大投入的同时强化成果转化监测,促进科技创新产出,推动中小工业企业稳健发展。

关键词: 科技创新, 创新驱动, 中小工业企业