Abstract: How to break through the bottleneck technology in the context of anti globalization has become a strategic issue for China's future development. After comparing the development differences between China's new energy vehicle industry and semiconductor industry, this article finds that the government's forward-looking industrial policies, market competition, and domestic super large market are important factors for China's new energy vehicle industry to "overtaking the curves", while the semiconductor industry does not have these conditions. Breaking through the bottleneck technology along the technology path dominated by developed countries in Europe and America poses difficulties such as technological monopoly and difficulty in catching up. In addition, the technology path dominated by developed countries in Europe and America has path dependence and supply chain stickiness, which provides an opportunity for China to achieve "overtaking the curves" in the bottleneck technology field. Whether to adopt a market driven model or a government led model for breaking through the bottleneck technology depends on the length of the industrial chain, the complexity of the technology (innovation uncertainty), as well as the public goods characteristics of the industry and market demand. Industries with relatively short industrial chains, relatively determined technological innovation paths, strong public goods characteristics, high fixed asset investment, or uncertain market demand are suitable for adopting a government led model. The spontaneous market model also requires industrial policies to support the "bottleneck" technological links from the perspective of the entire industry chain. The government led industrial development model should also focus on the interaction between the government and the market, and attach importance to the role of market mechanisms.

摘要： 在逆全球化背景下如何突破“卡脖子”技术成为中国未来发展的战略性问题。本文通过比较中国新能源汽车产业和半导体产业的发展差异后发现，政府具有前瞻性的产业政策、市场竞争和国内超大规模市场是中国新能源汽车产业弯道超车的重要因素，而半导体产业并不具备这些条件。沿着欧美发达国家主导的技术路径突破“卡脖子”技术存在技术垄断、追赶难度大等困难，而且，欧美发达国家主导的技术路径存在路径依赖和供应链粘性，这为中国在“卡脖子”技术领域实现弯道超车提供了机会。突破“卡脖子”技术采用市场自发模式还是政府主导模式取决于产业链长度、技术复杂度（创新不确定性）以及产业的公共品特性和市场需求情况。产业链相对较短、技术创新路径相对确定、公共品特征强、固定资产投入高或市场需求不确定的产业适合采用政府主导模式。市场自发模式也需要产业政策从全产业链角度对“卡脖子”技术环节进行扶持。政府主导的产业发展模式也应注重政府与市场的互动，重视市场机制的发挥。