Studies in Science of Science ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 931-939.

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Paradigm reconstruction and China's experience of the latecomer advantage in the era of artificial intelligence

  

  • Received:2025-03-31 Revised:2025-10-10 Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-15

人工智能时代后发优势的范式重构与中国经验

虞柳明1,黄雨晗2,黄先海2   

  1. 1. 中共浙江省委党校
    2. 浙江大学
  • 通讯作者: 黄雨晗
  • 基金资助:
    数字化变革、数据要素化与经济高质量发展

Abstract: In the era of artificial intelligence, the traditional latent advantages of backwardness are eroding, while the catch-up cycle for latecomer nations is compressing toward its theoretical limit within the economic convergence framework. Consequently, resolving the catch-up dilemma faced by these nations in the wave of AI development has become a critical agenda. This study, therefore, focuses on two pivotal questions. First, has the traditional latecomer advantage undergone a structural transformation in the AI era? Do developing countries, particularly emerging economies, retain the potential for leapfrogging development through technological catch-up? Second, how can a systematic theoretical framework be constructed to refine and expand the explanatory power of latecomer advantage theory in this new context? Addressing these questions, this research investigates the adaptability of latecomer advantage theory in the AI age. Integrating a case study on the deconstruction of the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, it innovatively develops a tripartite analytical framework encompassing factor competition, techno-economic paradigm, and geopolitics. This framework systematically elucidates the reconstruction logic of latecomer advantages across three dimensions: capability evolution, dynamic transition, and power realignment. Firstly, AI is shifting the driver of economic development from the industrial era’s dual engines of “energy and capital” to a synergistic triad of “data, algorithms, and computing power” in the intelligent economy. Secondly, AI not only expands the technological possibility frontier of production and innovation but also triggers a systemic shift in the economic feasibility frontier, thereby reshaping the patterns of innovation-driven growth and the genesis of comparative advantage. Finally, AI has become both a central arena for national strategic competition and a critical variable reshaping the global landscape of scientific and technological power. Furthermore, drawing on the successful exploration of China’s Deepseek, this study reveals that latecomers should identify stable fulcrums and plan development priorities amid economic uncertainty, thereby accelerating the iterative upgrading and dynamic evolution of their latecomer advantages to foster sustained productivity growth. Firstly, enhancing the abundance and diversity of high-quality production factors and promoting the deep integration of total factor resources are crucial for cultivating high-level competitive advantages and clarifying the logic of sustained economic growth. Latecomer economies must prioritize the optimization of their factor endowment structures and the cultivation of distinctive factor advantages, a foundational strategy for enabling a shift toward higher value-added creation. Secondly, transitioning from passively receiving technology spillovers to actively nurturing endogenous innovation ecosystems serves as the core driver for the adaptive reconstruction and sustained realization of latecomer advantages. Latecomer economies should pursue indigenous innovation in critical core technologies with the strategic objectives of enhancing effectiveness, improving precision, and expanding depth. Finally, a nonlinear transition mechanism involving institutional rule-building, opportunity capture, and advantage reconstitution emerges as a novel pathway to unlocking latecomer advantages in the intelligent age.Latecomer economies should forge first-mover advantages in critical fields such as technical standards, thereby securing greater discourse power within global value networks. In summary, the theory of latecomer advantage urgently requires adjustment, innovation, activation, extension, and consolidation at both theoretical and practical levels in the AI era. Implementing asymmetric leapfrogging strategies and pioneering differentiated competitive tracks represent effective means for latecomer nations to break free from path dependency and circumvent technological blockades. This study not only broadens the explanatory boundaries of latecomer advantage theory in the age of the intelligent economy but also provides empirical insights and practical references for the strategic choices of latecomer nations against the backdrop of a profoundly adjusting world order.

摘要: 如何破解后发国家在人工智能技术发展浪潮中面临的追赶困境,成为亟待解决的核心议题。本研究创新性构建了要素竞争、技术—经济范式与地缘政治的三维分析框架,结合对《2022年芯片与科学法案》的案例解构,系统阐释了人工智能时代后发优势在从能力嬗变、动力转换、权力演化维度的重构逻辑。进一步地,基于中国Deepseek的成功探索,本研究揭示出后发国家通过非对称竞争战略实现技术生态位跃迁的赶超潜力。研究表明,实施非对称赶超战略、开辟差异化竞争赛道,是后发国家摆脱路径依赖和突破技术封锁的有效方式。本研究不仅拓展了后发优势理论在智能经济时代的解释边界,亦为世界秩序深度调整背景下后发国家的战略选择提供了经验启示与实践参照。

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