Abstract: Amidst the accelerating evolution of unprecedented global transformations unfolding over a century and the profound recalibration of international power structures, the imperative of technological security as a bulwark against national security vulnerabilities has attained critical significance; technological risk, constituting a fundamental determinant impacting the integrity of national technological ecosystems, renders the establishment of a resilient and comprehensive technological risk assessment architecture fundamentally indispensable for the preemptive identification, mitigation, and ultimate resolution of major systemic threats; effectively neutralizing technological hazards performs an irreplaceable function in the overarching mission of national security preservation, serving not only to shield national technological sovereignty from external coercion and undue influence but also to strategically foster the judicious allocation of resources and the optimization of innovation trajectories across the technological landscape; this pressing context consequently generates an urgent, non-deferrable necessity for the concurrent advancement of indigenous innovation capacities and the meticulous construction of a sophisticated technological risk assessment and preemptive warning framework. Accordingly, anchored firmly in the established tenets of risk management theory, this research erects a holistic technological risk assessment framework structured upon the interconnected triad of "Risk Source - Risk Occurrence Probability - Risk Hedging Resilience," introduces a pioneering tripartite analytical paradigm—the Technology Dependence-Control-Gap (T-DCG) Model—predicated on the critical vectors of Technology Dependence (TD), Technology Control (TC), and Technology Gap (TG), and rigorously elucidates the complex causal pathways and synergistic mechanisms through which these three constitutive elements collectively modulate and amplify the aggregate technological risk exposure; proceeding from this conceptual and methodological groundwork, a systematic quantitative apparatus for technological risk measurement is meticulously engineered, commencing with the deployment of the Armington elasticity of substitution model to compute the Technology Dependence Index (TDI), subsequently defining and operationalizing the Technology Control Index (TCI) by leveraging the regulatory scope and restriction severity codified within the U.S. Commerce Control List (CCL), then introducing and applying the Relative Technological Comparative Advantage (RTCA) index to derive the Technology Gap Index (TGI), culminating in the algorithmic synthesis of these three cardinal metrics to yield the Comprehensive Technical Risk Value (TRV), which facilitates the stratification of technological risk severity into four discrete, ordinally ranked classifications: Extremely High Risk, High Risk, Medium Risk, and Low Risk; a rigorous empirical validation exercise concentrating on the strategically pivotal semiconductor domain—encompassing fabrication equipment, foundational materials, and finished integrated circuits—robustly corroborates the methodological feasibility and discriminatory power of the proposed system, with the application of the T-DCG model yielding the following granular risk categorizations: lithography machines, photolithography chemicals, logic processors and cutting-edge memory devices assessed at the Extremely High Risk level; radio frequency (RF) components, fourth-generation semiconductor substrates ion implantation systems, and photomask substrates classified as High Risk; silicon wafer substrates, atomic layer deposition (ALD) apparatus, plasma etching tools, and metrology/inspection equipment designated as Medium Risk; while chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) polishers, CMP slurry compounds, physical vapor deposition (PVD) sputtering targets, advanced packaging substrates, and lead frame components evaluated as Low Risk; this investigation consequently furnishes a novel theoretical vantage point for conceptualizing and dissecting technological risk, delivers an innovative, quantitatively grounded methodology for the ongoing evaluation and vigilant monitoring of technological vulnerabilities, and substantially augments the granular, micro-level scholarship pertaining to security risk appraisal within the intricate and dynamic realm of technology.

摘要： 技术风险是影响国家安全的关键因素，建立健全技术风险评估体系对防范化解重大风险具有重要意义。从风险管理理论出发，构建了“风险源-风险发生概率-风险对冲承受力”的技术风险评估框架，提出基于“技术依赖-技术管制-技术差距”三因素视角的技术风险评估模型（T-DCG模型），探讨了三因素对技术风险的作用机制。在此基础上，构建技术风险评估定量测算方法体系：首先利用Armington替代弹性模型测算技术依赖度指标，以美国商业管制清单为基础明确技术管制度，引入技术优势指数（RTCA）测算技术差距度指标，最后计算综合技术风险值（TRV），据此将技术风险等级分为极高风险、高风险、中风险、低风险四个等级。以半导体设备、材料和产品为例，进行了实证研究，验证方法的可行性。本研究为技术风险的量化评价和监测提供了一个新的思路。