Abstract: Base on the export data of 12 categories products in provincial-level, this paper estimated 28 provinces’ catch-up index of export sophistication of labor and capital intensive industries. Then take advantage of threshold estimation to analysis the effects of catch-up to the economic growth. The preliminary conclusions included :(1) the effects of catch-up to the economic growth is non-linear.(2)Catch-up is not destined to enhance economic growth, the labor intensive industries have an convergence in the effects of catch-up to economic growth. (3) The catch-up intensity of capital intensive industries in Eastern China and labor intensive industries in Eastern and Central China should be strengthened, but the catch-up degree of capital intensive industries in Central and Western China should be moderate.

摘要： 基于2002-2008年省级层面十二大类（HS码）产品的出口数据，本文测度了28个省级区域劳动和资本密集型产业的出口技术复杂度赶超系数，进而运用门槛效应模型对赶超的经济增长效应进行了非线性检验，研究结果显示：首先出口技术复杂度赶超对经济增长的作用力呈现出明显的非线性；其次执行出口技术复杂度赶超策略不一定能促进本地经济增长，且我国劳动密集型产业出口技术复杂度赶超对经济增长的作用力存在显著的“收敛区间”；最后东部地区资本密集型产业及东中部劳动密集型产业的出口技术复杂度赶超力度可进一步加强，而大力赶超的策略并不适合中西部地区资本密集型产业。

关键词: 出口技术复杂度, 赶超, 经济增长, 门槛效应模型, 比较优势零值, export sophistication, catch-up, economic growth, threshold estimation, zero point of comparative advantage.