Studies in Science of Science ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 1702-1714.
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郭元源1,秦武2,吴亮1,陈意锒1,程聪3
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Abstract: As a complex product system, new energy vehicles have brought disruptive changes to existing transportation modes and energy consumption structures, especially in the context of addressing climate change and promoting green development trends, playing a crucial role in continuously leading the transformation and upgrading of China's automotive industry. However, despite the significant achievements in the development of the new energy vehicle industry, a retrospective analysis reveals that its technological level has been constrained by multiple factors, such as the absence of core technologies, low-end production capacity, and fraudulent subsidy claims by enterprises. These factors have long maintained a fixed gap with cutting-edge technologies, positioning the industry as a follower struggling to achieve a leap forward and deeply mired in a "middle-technology trap." This not only results in the idle waste of government fiscal funds but also further dampens the enthusiasm of market entities and end-consumer participation, ultimately hindering the healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry. Based on this, analyzing the theoretical mechanism for the new energy vehicle industry to bridge the technological gap and achieve technological catch-up in the short term becomes an important issue that drives China to transition from a major automotive country to a powerful one and inspires other industries stuck in late-developer traps to pursue technological catch-up. Addressing this issue, this paper first systematically argues the characteristic facts of the new energy vehicle industry falling into the "middle-technology trap" in its early stages by combining aspects of government regulation, market development, and industrial chain support. It identifies that non-unified technical standards, pervasive local protectionism in the institutional environment, insufficient competitive mechanisms, and outdated market environments, along with an industry chain system that only masters low-end technological processes, are the main reasons why new energy vehicles face low levels of core technology R&D, an extensive but not strong industrial chain, and a lack of autonomy. Considering that mainstream technology catch-up theories like reverse A-U cannot effectively explain the phenomenon of rapid industrial catch-up, this paper, based on the existing literature on industrial technology transcendence paths and focusing on the phenomenon of rapid development in the new energy vehicle industry in the short term, attempts to reveal the mechanism of technological catch-up for new energy vehicles as a complex product system from the perspective of dynamic stage evolution based on the logical chain of "goal-action-outcome." Specifically, facing the predicament of being stuck in the "middle-technology trap," this paper, in conjunction with industry-relevant background information, finds that the technological catch-up process of the industry undergoes three stages and forms a new catch-up model: core component industrialization achieved through alliance-led entity coordination by integrating elements and constructing standards; application scenario diversification achieved through policy-empowered process coordination by establishing and optimizing processes; and ecosystem maturation achieved through market-led strategic coordination by leading competition and extending value. Throughout the catch-up process, the government, market, and industry chain as the boundary conditions of industrial development, jointly drive the industry to bridge the technological gap by leveraging institutional advantages, scale benefits, and support advantages. The new innovation catch-up model proposed in this paper differs from existing technology catch-up theories formed in strongly administratively controlled and monopolistic market areas, providing a robust theoretical supplement to the literature on bridging technology gaps in open market environments. It further expands the innovative evolutionary path for late-developer industries to achieve technological catch-up, providing a theoretical basis for revealing the basic mechanisms and principles of complex product systems to achieve rapid catch-up.
摘要: 实现复杂产品系统产业技术赶超是构建现代化产业体系的重要环节,但其基础机制和原理仍待突破。围绕新能源汽车在短期内得以快速发展这一现象,聚焦于动态阶段演化视角揭示新能源汽车作为复杂产品系统技术赶超的作用机理。研究发现:新能源汽车产业在发展过程中面临“中等技术陷阱”,其技术追赶历经3个阶段并形成新型赶超模式。即由联盟牵引的主体协同通过要素整合与标准构建实现核心零部件产业化;由政策赋能的流程协同通过流程搭建与流程优化实现应用场景多元化;由市场主导的战略协同通过竞争引领与价值扩展实现生态链成熟化。同时在追赶过程中,作为产业发展边界条件的政府、市场与产业链分别通过发挥制度优势、规模优势和配套优势共同对新能源汽车产业跨越技术鸿沟产生强有力的推动作用。基于研究结果,文章提出针对性意见以期对后发产业技术追赶实现跨越式发展提供有益参考。
郭元源 秦武 吴亮 陈意锒 程聪. 产业“疾驰”何以可能? ———基于中国新能源汽车产业技术赶超的分析[J]. 科学学研究, 2025, 43(8): 1702-1714.
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