Abstract:

Adopting a spatial perspective on talent policies, this paper constructs a quantitative standard for Chinese urban talent policy, and scores 3308 talent policies in 293 prefecture-level cities. On this basis, by using spatial analysis methods, this paper characterizes the spatiotemporal differentiation and evolutionary processes of talent policies at the prefecture-level in China from 2012 to 2021. Meanwhile, this paper designs an evaluation index system for new quality productive forces in cities, and conducts a quantitative study on the relationship between urban talent policies and new quality productive forces. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive scores of talent policies exhibit a southeast-to-northwest gradient, featuring higher scores in the southeast and lower scores in the northwest. Specifically, the eastern region has maintained a high level of scores throughout, while the central region, despite starting from a lower base, has experienced rapid growth. In contrast, the western and northeastern regions have experienced relatively slower improvements. (2) Based on the analysis of urban types from the three dimensions of "policy intensity-policy objective-policy measure", it is evident that cities with simultaneous progress in all three dimensions tend to expand from the coast towards the inland. Additionally, internal polarization is prominent in the western and northeastern regions. (3) The analysis of urban types based on the three dimensions of "policy instrument-policy link- prioritized talent" reveals that the central region exhibits shortcomings in the use of safeguard policy instruments, while the western and northeastern regions lack adequate development policy instruments. The western region faces notable shortcomings in talent retention policies, while the northeastern region exhibits deficiencies in talent cultivation policies. While regions vary in their preferences for talent types, highly educated talents have universally emerged as the primary focus. (4) In practical terms, talent policies significantly enhance the development of new quality productive forces by leveraging the talent agglomeration effect, innovation-driven effect, and industrial upgrading effect, with distinct heterogeneities observed across regions and policy types. The research conclusions can provide decision-making references for local governments to formulate more practical talent policies. The marginal contributions of this paper lie in: Firstly, it innovatively designs a quantitative standard system for prefecture-level talent policies in China, encompassing three dimensions: policy intensity, policy objectives, and policy measures. This system was applied to score 3308 talent policy texts across 293 prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2021, thereby establishing a panel database (2012-2021) of comprehensive scores and detailed indicators for China's prefecture-level talent policies. This provides comprehensive and robust data support for subsequent research. Secondly, employing spatial analysis methods, the paper systematically characterizes the spatiotemporal evolution of talent policies at the prefecture-level in China. It presents a panoramic view of their gradient distribution pattern, internal regional polarization characteristics, and the trajectory of spatial center shifts, constituting a valuable exploration into the spatial dynamics of nationwide prefecture-level talent policies. Thirdly, it constructs an evaluation index system for urban new quality productive forces and conducts a quantitative study on the relationship between talent policies and new quality productive forces. This research precisely identifies the heterogeneous effects of policies across regions, policy instruments, and policy links, offering new perspectives and evidence for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution and practical effectiveness of talent policies in Chinese cities.

Key words: talent policy, policy quantification, spatiotemporal evolution, new quality productive forces

摘要：

本文基于人才政策空间视角,构造了中国城市人才政策量化标准,并对293个地级市3308项人才政策进行打分,在此基础上使用空间分析方法对2012至2021年中国地市级层面人才政策时空分异特征及演变过程进行刻画,同时设计城市新质生产力评价指标体系,对人才政策和新质生产力的关系展开定量研究。结果表明:(1)中国地市级人才政策综合得分呈现东南高-西北低的梯级分布特征,东部地区始终保持较高水准,中部地区起点较低但增速较快,西部和东北地区提升相对缓慢。(2)基于“政策力度-政策目标-政策措施”三维度城市类型分析显示,三维并进型城市呈现由沿海向内陆扩展的趋势,西部和东北地区内部极化特征突显。(3)基于“政策工具-政策环节-重点人才”三维度城市类型分析显示,中部地区保障型政策工具存在短板,西部和东北地区发展型工具暴露出明显不足;西部地区人才留用政策短板突出,东北地区育才政策劣势明显;各地区重点人才类型偏好具有差异,但学历人才已普遍成为城市人才政策的主要目标。(4)从实际效果来看,城市人才政策能够通过发挥人才集聚效应、创新驱动效应与产业结构升级效应显著促进新质生产力发展,且该作用存在明显的区域异质性和政策异质性。研究结论可为地方政府制定更切合实际的人才政策提供决策参考。

关键词: 人才政策, 政策量化, 时空演变, 新质生产力