Abstract: Radical technological changes reveal significant variations in the adaptability of incumbent firms. Existing studies on the factors influencing adaptability often overlook the heterogeneity of technological changes across industries and attempts to discover the marginal effect of individual antecedent variables on firms' adaptability. These approaches have been increasingly critiqued in recent years. This study investigates the transition within the automotive industry from internal combustion engine (ICE) technology to new energy vehicle (NEV) technology. The salient features of this change are: first, different incumbent firms had different historical deposits before the change, and how they treat their historical legacy will affect their ability to successfully adapt to technological change. Second, the ICE power technology as the core knowledge has fundamentally changed, and how the incumbent firms acquire the NEV core knowledge will affect their ability to adapt to technological change. Third, production systems, distribution and service networks are still largely available as complementary assets, and how these complementary assets are exploited will affect the incumbent firm's ability to adapt to technological change. Based on these characteristics, the study develops a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) framework that includes seven antecedent variables across three critical dimensions: firm historical factors, organizational structures for new business, and strategies for new business development. Firm historical factors includes whether it was a Sino-foreign joint venture before the transition, its R&D experience and market position in the fuel vehicle era. Organizational structures for new business includes whether it has set up an independent business unit for the new energy vehicle business, and whether it has established new energy technology alliances with other firms. And new business development strategy includes whether it has adopted a highly innovative product strategy, and whether it has adopted a diversified product strategy. The degree of technological transition is utilized as the outcome variable. Using a sample of 42 automotive industry incumbents, the findings reveal that incumbents can achieve successful transition through two distinct pathways: the "history-constrained" pathway and the "opportunity-oriented" pathway. Firms that adopt a "history-constrained" pathway have a rich heritage (R&D experience, market position), and therefore choose a smaller degree of product innovation (e.g., hybrids) in their new business development strategy and diversify their product offerings to test the new energy vehicle market, which they are unfamiliar with. In order to free themselves from the constraints of a strong legacy business, these firms will set up a separate business unit for new business. Firms that have taken the "opportunity-oriented" pathway do not have a strong fuel-vehicle business, so the establishment of a separate new energy division is not a core requirement. For these firms, the main concern is how to seize the opportunity of the industry's technological transition to ‘overtake’. These firms are less likely to diversify into new products because their traditional business is weak and their ability to invest in new business is limited. Both "history-constrained" pathway and "opportunity-oriented" pathway require firms to be free of joint venture constraints and to acquire core knowledge through new technology alliances in order to be successful. Each pathway is closely associated with the specific characteristics of the technological change under study. While the conclusions do not encompass all possible types of technological changes, they provide feasible pathways for incumbents to achieve successful transition in specific types of technological transitions.

摘要： 面对激进式技术变迁，不同在位企业的适应性表现出很大的差异。现有关于企业适应性影响因素的研究忽视了不同行业技术变迁的异质性，并试图发现单个前因变量对企业适应性的边际影响。近年来，这两种作法受到了批评。本文选择汽车行业从燃油动力技术向新能源动力技术变迁作为研究背景，这一变迁的特点是在位企业历史背景多样化、核心知识大幅度更新、互补资产仍保留相当的价值。从这些特点出发，本文构建了包括企业历史因素、新业务组织方式和新业务发展战略三个关键维度共七个前因变量的QCA分析框架，尝试发现在位企业成功转型的多重路径。基于42家整车制造企业样本的研究结果表明：在位企业可以通过“历史约束型”和“面向机遇型”两种不同的路径成功实现转型，每一种转型路径都与给定的技术变迁特点密切相关。本文的研究结论虽然不能覆盖各种可能的技术变迁类型，但至少为给定类型的技术变迁中在位企业如何成功转型提出了可行的路径。