Studies in Science of Science ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 1639-1648.

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Research on government technology assessment methods

  

  • Received:2024-07-01 Revised:2024-09-28 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-08-15

面向政府决策的技术评估方法与应用

王晔博1,李晓莹1,2,王嘉蒙1,2,王高婕1,2,杨云1,庞宇1   

  1. 1. 科技部科技评估中心
    2.
  • 通讯作者: 庞宇

Abstract: At present, technological innovation has entered an unprecedentedly intensive and active period. The uncertainty of technological development, the complexity of cross-border integration, international scientific and technological cooperation and competition, and other factors have brought more challenges to government decision-making and technological governance. As a policy consulting tool, technology assessment can provide high-quality knowledge and strategic intelligence with scientific and forward-looking characteristics. It plays an increasingly important role in government science and technology policy formulation and management decision-making, and has become an important means to support technology development layout, respond to crises, and tackle challenges. The OECD document emphasizes that technology assessment is a key source of strategic intelligence and points out that constantly changing decision-making needs are driving the development of technology assessment. NSF expects to begin building the knowledge base, data, and analytical tools required for critical technology assessment through a one-year National Key Technology Assessment Pilot Network. In the current era of increasingly fierce international competition, it is timely to strengthen technology evaluation for government decision-making. The research team found through a literature review that Chinese scholars only began to explore technology assessment in the early 1980s. Early research mainly focused on international experience analysis, and there was generally less research on technology assessment tools and methods. Therefore, the aim is to explore the connotation, characteristics, evaluation objects, purposes, content, methods, results, and applications of technology evaluation for government decision-making. Based on a comprehensive review of relevant research and cases on technology evaluation, the research team analyzed the connotation of technology evaluation for government decision-making and summarized its four characteristics: comprehensiveness and systematicity, objectivity and accuracy, policy orientation and foresight, and emphasis on stakeholder participation. The research team analyzed and summarized the experience and practices of relevant evaluation practices at home and abroad from three dimensions: evaluation objects and purposes, evaluation methods, evaluation results and usage. This research team also proposed a general technical evaluation methodology framework applicable to government decision-making, including five key stages of evaluation implementation: disassembly of evaluation objects, determination of evaluation dimensions, collection of evidence information, analysis of evidence information, and reporting. Furthermore, within the framework of evaluation methodology, the research team has assembled a series of methods, tools, and techniques discovered in case studies to construct an evaluation methodology system. Based on the practice of evaluating brain computer interface technology, the application of the technology evaluation methodology system has been explained through typical cases. This study fills the gap in relevant research fields in China and provides a methodological and theoretical basis for decision-makers and technology evaluation practitioners to more effectively utilize technology team believes that there is still room for further development and formation of relevant technology evaluation products, methods, tools, and models, as well as the development of technology evaluation talent teams and basic databases for government decision-making. Theory and practice promote each other to enhance the overall capability level of technology evaluation in China.

摘要: 技术评估是一类成熟的政策咨询工具。当前,科技革命和产业变革加速演进,要求更加精准有效的政府决策,强化了政府对技术评估的需求。研究旨在探讨面向政府决策的技术评估内涵、特征,评估对象、目的、内容、方法及其结果和应用。[研究方法与结果] 研究在全面梳理技术评估相关研究的基础上,对国内外面向政府决策的技术评估内容方法进行分析总结,在此基础上,构建了可供借鉴参考的技术评估方法论框架和体系,并应用于具体评估实践。[研究结论] 面向政府决策的新兴技术评估方法体系弥补了国内相关研究的不足,为决策者和技术评估从业者更有效地利用技术评估支撑政策制定和技术治理提供了方法理论基础。