Abstract: Artificial intelligence is a pivotal force in cultivating new quality productive forces in China. Examining how the synergy between digitalization and green transformation drives the development of future industries is important for overcoming current bottlenecks. Using panel data for 283 Chinese cities from 2009 to 2023, this study employs fixed-effects, mediation, and spatial Durbin models to empirically assess the effect of the synergy between digital and green transformation on future industrial development. The results show that digital transformation significantly promotes future industrial development, whereas green transformation yields notable effects only in the long term. The synergy between digital and green transformation offsets green transformation’s short-term limitations, enabling them to jointly foster future industrial development in the short- and long-term. Mechanism tests indicate that this dual synergy advances future industrial development through three channels: attracting green finance, strengthening green innovation capabilities, and optimizing industrial structure. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the synergistic effects are stronger in larger cities, in cities with more advanced digital economies, and in cities with higher environmental awareness. Moreover, the synergy exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, thereby fostering coordinated industrial layouts across cities. This study deepens our understanding of the drivers, mechanisms, and spatial heterogeneity through which the dual synergy of digitalization and green transformation promotes future industrial development.

摘要： 人工智能是我国培育新质生产力的关键力量，探索双化协同如何推动未来产业发展对破除卡脖子难题意义重大。基于2009-2023年中国283个城市的面板数据，建立固定效应模型、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型，实证检验双化协同对未来产业发展的影响。研究发现：数字化转型显著推动了未来产业发展，绿色化转型仅产生了长期驱动效应，双化协同正好弥补了绿色化转型的短期驱动的不足，使其能从短期和长期共同促进未来产业发展。机制检验表明，双化协同可以通过吸收绿色金融投资、提升绿色创新能力和优化产业结构三种途径推动未来产业发展。异质性分析显示，双化协同对未来产业发展的影响效应在大规模、数字经济水平较高和环境关注度较高的城市中更为显著。此外，双化协同对未来产业发展具有显著的空间溢出效应，有助于推动城市间形成协调发展的产业布局。本文推动了未来产业发展动因以及双化协同赋能未来产业发展的效应、机制和空间差异的理解。