关键词: 新兴技术演化, 优化, 太阳能电池技术, 多主体遗传算法, the evolution of emerging technology, optimization, solar cell technology, multiagent genetic algorithm

Abstract: The development and improvement process of solar cell technology can be naturally described as a series of optimization problem solving processes which involve many innovation agents such as enterprises and consumers. Enterprises improve technology by modifying on their own technology and learning from other enterprise, and the market selects the fittest to survive. These observations lead to a multiagent system model for technology evolution. This paper builds a multiagent model for solar cell technology in which each technology (along with its developer) is represented by an agent. A multi-agent genetic algorithm is used to simulate technological innovation and market selection processes. The results are validated with actual cell technology evolution data, and the effects of the innovation cost rate on the technology evolution trajectory are analyzed.