疫情冲击下中国创业活跃度损失与韧性研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文区分新冠疫情冲击的应急阶段和常态化阶段,依托全国企业工商注册大数据,实证评估了疫情应急阶段下中国创业活跃度的损失程度,以及常态化阶段的韧性和恢复力。研究发现:(1)新冠疫情应急阶段中国创业活跃度显著下降,比2019年同期降低了28.59%,并且新冠疫情越严重,创业活跃度下降越大;(2)疫情常态化阶段中国创业活跃度显著反弹,如第二季度比2019年同期增加了25.62%;在应急阶段创业损失和企业退出增加越多,常态化阶段创业活跃度反弹越大;(3)整体上,新冠疫情并没有使得2020年中国创业活跃度下降,但新冠疫情对不同行业创业的影响存在明显差异。本文不仅从新创企业的角度丰富了对新冠疫情经济冲击的全面认识,而且明确了疫情冲击下中国经济韧性的重要来源。

关键词: 新冠疫情, 创业活跃度, 韧性

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe negative impact on the global economy, and all the 15 largest economies in the world excluding China experienced economic recession in 2020. Joseph Schumpeter once pointed out that the period of economic crisis and recession is also a period of "creative disruption". On the one hand, a large number of firms exit the market due to business difficulties, and on the other hand, new business models and novel operation patterns will constantly emerge. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the literature has focused on exploring the impact of COVID-19 on the revenue, cash flow and living conditions of incumbent firms. They found that the outbreak of COVID-19 made incumbent firms facing difficulties such as cash flow tension, supply chain disruption and market demand decline, and sharp fell of revenue.

However, there is a dearth of literature on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected entrepreneurial activity in China. In addition to incumbents, start-ups and new firms are also important sources of economic vitality, competitiveness and resilience. Entrepreneurial activities can not only create a large number of jobs and promote full market competition, but also accelerate the commercial application of new technologies and knowledge spillover. Therefore, if the impact of COVID-19 on entrepreneurial activities in China is neglected in the literature, our understanding of the COVID-19’s economic shock is far from comprehensive and correct. How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected entrepreneurial activity in China? To what extent? And How has the entrepreneurial activity changed in different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic? There is little literature to answer these questions.

To contribute to the literature, this paper differentiates the two phases of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, uses big data on firms’ registration from a big data platform, and empirically examines the loss and resilience of entrepreneurship in China under COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that: (1) the entrepreneurial activities decreased significantly in the COVID-19 emergency phase, which is 28.59% lower than that in the same period of 2019, cities with more COVID-19 cases and longer emergency response suffer the greater the decline of entrepreneurial activities. (2) the entrepreneurial activities in the COVID normal phase rose and rebounded significantly, with an increase of 25.62% in the second quarter compared with the same period of 2019. Cities with more increase of firms’ exit rate and higher decline of entrepreneurial activities in the COVID-19 emergency phase also have more increase of entrepreneurial activities. (3) Overall, COVID-19 did not cause a significant decrease in entrepreneurial activities in 2020, but there are significant differences in entrepreneurial activities in different regions. This paper not only enriches the understanding of the economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic, but also identifies the important source of China's economic resilience under the epidemic.

Key words: COVID-19, entrepreneurship, resilience

中图分类号:

F062.4

谷军健, 廖理, 张伟强, 袁伟. 疫情冲击下中国创业活跃度损失与韧性研究[J]. 科学学研究, 2024, 42(1): 158-169.

GU Jun-jian, LIAO Li, ZHANG Wei-qiang, YUAN Wei. The loss and resilience of entrepreneurship in China under COVID-19 pandemic[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2024, 42(1): 158-169.

图/表 9

参考文献 17

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变量	基本回归结果		剔除湖北省样本		随机效应模型
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Covid	-2.4494^***	-2.5491^***	-2.3763^***	-2.4340^***	-2.4494^***	-2.4573^***
	(0.2314)	(0.2541)	(0.2384)	(0.2595)	(0.2314)	(0.2480)
Trend	0.4907^***	0.4312^***	0.5148^***	0.4350^**	0.4907^***	0.1106
	(0.1418)	(0.1619)	(0.1470)	(0.1682)	(0.1418)	(0.1637)
控制变量	否	是	否	是	否	是
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	1011	902	972	869	1011	902
R²	0.2166	0.2172	0.1983	0.2031	0.0000	0.1941

变量	基本回归结果		剔除湖北省样本		随机效应模型
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Covid	-2.4494^***	-2.5491^***	-2.3763^***	-2.4340^***	-2.4494^***	-2.4573^***
	(0.2314)	(0.2541)	(0.2384)	(0.2595)	(0.2314)	(0.2480)
Trend	0.4907^***	0.4312^***	0.5148^***	0.4350^**	0.4907^***	0.1106
	(0.1418)	(0.1619)	(0.1470)	(0.1682)	(0.1418)	(0.1637)
控制变量	否	是	否	是	否	是
个体效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	1011	902	972	869	1011	902
R²	0.2166	0.2172	0.1983	0.2031	0.0000	0.1941

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Covid×Severity	-0.3896^***	-0.5309^***			-0.3432^***	-0.4944^***
	(0.0870)	(0.0921)			(0.1080)	(0.1155)
Covid×Prevention			-3.4861^***	-4.1515^***	-1.2292	-0.9543
			(1.0638)	(1.2276)	(1.2968)	(1.4789)
Covid	-0.5543^**	-0.4247	-0.2335	-0.2424	-0.1706	-0.1173
	(0.2273)	(0.2743)	(0.4515)	(0.5591)	(0.4462)	(0.5403)
控制变量	否	是	否	是	否	是
固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	1011	902	1011	902	1011	902
R²	0.2344	0.2587	0.2180	0.2277	0.2357	0.2594

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Covid×Severity	-0.3896^***	-0.5309^***			-0.3432^***	-0.4944^***
	(0.0870)	(0.0921)			(0.1080)	(0.1155)
Covid×Prevention			-3.4861^***	-4.1515^***	-1.2292	-0.9543
			(1.0638)	(1.2276)	(1.2968)	(1.4789)
Covid	-0.5543^**	-0.4247	-0.2335	-0.2424	-0.1706	-0.1173
	(0.2273)	(0.2743)	(0.4515)	(0.5591)	(0.4462)	(0.5403)
控制变量	否	是	否	是	否	是
固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	1011	902	1011	902	1011	902
R²	0.2344	0.2587	0.2180	0.2277	0.2357	0.2594

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Covid×Severity	-0.4638^***	-0.5910^***			-0.4184^***	-0.5550^***
	(0.0868)	(0.0892)			(0.1158)	(0.1237)
Yr18×Severity	-0.1485	-0.1340			-0.1504	-0.1498
	(0.0911)	(0.0997)			(0.1071)	(0.1208)
Covid×Prevention			-3.9551^***	-4.5251^***	-1.2037	-0.9281
			(1.0820)	(1.2042)	(1.4264)	(1.5854)
Yr18×Prevention			-0.9382	-0.4791	0.0509	0.4441
			(1.1293)	(1.2583)	(1.3316)	(1.5206)
Covid	-0.5788^**	-0.3000	-0.2798	-0.1305	-0.2031	-0.0034
	(0.2345)	(0.2524)	(0.4923)	(0.5723)	(0.4801)	(0.5423)
Yr18	-0.0491	-0.0005	-0.0925	-0.2617	-0.0649	-0.1540
	(0.2400)	(0.2612)	(0.4795)	(0.5356)	(0.4750)	(0.5203)
控制变量	否	是	否	是	否	是
固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	1011	902	1011	902	1011	902
R²	0.2503	0.2674	0.2313	0.2361	0.2516	0.2685