科学学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 54-66.
收稿日期:2022-11-23
修回日期:2023-03-26
出版日期:2024-01-15
发布日期:2024-01-15
通讯作者:
马子涵(1992-),女,回族,博士研究生,E-mail:作者简介:吴先明(1964-),男,教授、博士生导师。
基金资助:Received:2022-11-23
Revised:2023-03-26
Online:2024-01-15
Published:2024-01-15
摘要:
本文以2008-2018年进行国内并购和跨境并购的中国A股上市公司为研究对象,实证检验了产业政策对企业跨境并购倾向的影响。研究结果表明,产业政策对跨境并购倾向具有显著的正向影响。产业政策主要通过获得政府补助和提高商业信用进而影响企业跨境并购倾向。行业竞争环境、市场化程度、环境不确定性、企业创新能力和高管薪酬粘性会影响产业政策的实施效果。产业政策没有显著影响跨境并购的交易金额,但提高了跨境并购的股权水平和完成率;同时,战略资产寻求动因能够显著增强产业政策对跨境并购交易金额和股权水平的影响。揭示了产业政策对企业跨境并购倾向的独特作用,不仅丰富了产业政策对跨境并购影响机制的研究,同时也为如何更好地运用产业政策提升跨境并购的效果提供了政策参考。
中图分类号:
吴先明, 马子涵. 产业政策与跨境并购:政策导向还是创新驱动?[J]. 科学学研究, 2024, 42(1): 54-66.
WU Xian-ming, MA Zi-han. Industrial policy and cross-border M&As:Policy orientation or innovation driven?[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2024, 42(1): 54-66.
| 变量 | Obs | Mean | SD | Min | Median | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oversea | 7300 | 0.0819 | 0.274 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| policy | 7290 | 0.5916 | 0.492 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| size | 7300 | 21.9908 | 1.395 | 15.58 | 21.78 | 30.75 |
| age | 7300 | 2.6885 | 0.386 | 0.6931 | 2.773 | 3.951 |
| lev | 7267 | 2.4031 | 4.959 | 0.02464 | 1.449 | 204.7 |
| roa | 7300 | 0.0405 | 0.067 | -0.9986 | 0.03759 | 0.6689 |
| cash | 7300 | 0.0408 | 0.082 | -1.938 | 0.0404 | 0.7713 |
| ind | 7278 | 0.3727 | 0.056 | 0.2 | 0.3333 | 0.8 |
| soe | 7289 | 0.37 | 0.483 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ceogender | 7292 | 0.9298 | 0.256 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ceoage | 7224 | 48.3566 | 6.295 | 27 | 48 | 75 |
| ceoground | 7300 | 0.0805 | 0.272 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
表1 描述性统计
Table 1 Descriptive statistics
| 变量 | Obs | Mean | SD | Min | Median | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oversea | 7300 | 0.0819 | 0.274 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| policy | 7290 | 0.5916 | 0.492 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| size | 7300 | 21.9908 | 1.395 | 15.58 | 21.78 | 30.75 |
| age | 7300 | 2.6885 | 0.386 | 0.6931 | 2.773 | 3.951 |
| lev | 7267 | 2.4031 | 4.959 | 0.02464 | 1.449 | 204.7 |
| roa | 7300 | 0.0405 | 0.067 | -0.9986 | 0.03759 | 0.6689 |
| cash | 7300 | 0.0408 | 0.082 | -1.938 | 0.0404 | 0.7713 |
| ind | 7278 | 0.3727 | 0.056 | 0.2 | 0.3333 | 0.8 |
| soe | 7289 | 0.37 | 0.483 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ceogender | 7292 | 0.9298 | 0.256 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ceoage | 7224 | 48.3566 | 6.295 | 27 | 48 | 75 |
| ceoground | 7300 | 0.0805 | 0.272 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| (1)Probit | (2)Probit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | (5)Logit | (6)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.6026*** (5.36) | 0.6354*** (4.86) | 0.6491*** (4.97) | 1.3075*** (5.69) | 1.1112*** (4.25) | 1.1391*** (4.38) |
| size | 0.3719*** (8.82) | 0.3818*** (9.01) | 0.7172*** (8.27) | 0.7330*** (8.34) | ||
| age | -0.3532** (-2.02) | -0.3160* (-1.77) | -0.5938* (-1.76) | -0.5271 (-1.51) | ||
| lev | -3.1621*** (-9.83) | -3.1970*** (-9.63) | -6.5838*** (-10.64) | -6.7076*** (-10.12) | ||
| roa | -1.0091 (-0.58) | -1.1557 (-0.67) | 1.7857 (0.49) | 1.5973 (0.40) | ||
| cash | -0.9656 (-1.36) | -0.9196 (-1.10) | -2.9857** (-1.98) | -3.0403* (-1.66) | ||
| ind | -1.6874** (-2.03) | -1.6857** (-1.99) | -2.5121 (-1.52) | -2.5859 (-1.45) | ||
| soe | -0.4432*** (-3.03) | -0.4925*** (-3.31) | -0.7163** (-2.46) | -0.7686*** (-2.60) | ||
| ceogender | 0.4624* (1.72) | 0.9246* (1.68) | ||||
| ceoage | 0.0017 (0.21) | 0.0001 (0.01) | ||||
| ceoground | 0.6862*** (3.05) | 1.4070*** (2.84) | ||||
| _cons | -3.3015*** (-12.03) | -7.6663*** (-6.30) | -8.5719*** (-6.60) | -6.3420*** (-10.60) | -14.4627*** (-6.08) | -15.9406*** (-6.31) |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.6038 | 0.8081 | 0.8156 | 0.6087 | 0.8166 | 0.8243 |
| N | 7032 | 6969 | 6901 | 7032 | 6969 | 6901 |
表2 基准回归结果
Table 2 Benchmark regression results
| (1)Probit | (2)Probit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | (5)Logit | (6)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.6026*** (5.36) | 0.6354*** (4.86) | 0.6491*** (4.97) | 1.3075*** (5.69) | 1.1112*** (4.25) | 1.1391*** (4.38) |
| size | 0.3719*** (8.82) | 0.3818*** (9.01) | 0.7172*** (8.27) | 0.7330*** (8.34) | ||
| age | -0.3532** (-2.02) | -0.3160* (-1.77) | -0.5938* (-1.76) | -0.5271 (-1.51) | ||
| lev | -3.1621*** (-9.83) | -3.1970*** (-9.63) | -6.5838*** (-10.64) | -6.7076*** (-10.12) | ||
| roa | -1.0091 (-0.58) | -1.1557 (-0.67) | 1.7857 (0.49) | 1.5973 (0.40) | ||
| cash | -0.9656 (-1.36) | -0.9196 (-1.10) | -2.9857** (-1.98) | -3.0403* (-1.66) | ||
| ind | -1.6874** (-2.03) | -1.6857** (-1.99) | -2.5121 (-1.52) | -2.5859 (-1.45) | ||
| soe | -0.4432*** (-3.03) | -0.4925*** (-3.31) | -0.7163** (-2.46) | -0.7686*** (-2.60) | ||
| ceogender | 0.4624* (1.72) | 0.9246* (1.68) | ||||
| ceoage | 0.0017 (0.21) | 0.0001 (0.01) | ||||
| ceoground | 0.6862*** (3.05) | 1.4070*** (2.84) | ||||
| _cons | -3.3015*** (-12.03) | -7.6663*** (-6.30) | -8.5719*** (-6.60) | -6.3420*** (-10.60) | -14.4627*** (-6.08) | -15.9406*** (-6.31) |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.6038 | 0.8081 | 0.8156 | 0.6087 | 0.8166 | 0.8243 |
| N | 7032 | 6969 | 6901 | 7032 | 6969 | 6901 |
| PSM | 替换解释变量 | 替换解释变量 | 改变固定效应 | 改变固定效应 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1)Probit | (2)Probit | (3)Logit | (4)Probit | (5)Logit | |
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.7083*** (4.35) | 0.6511*** (4.23) | 1.1475*** (3.42) | ||
| key | 0.2712** (1.75) | 0.4925* (1.54) | |||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 省份固定效应 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.8458 | 0.8093 | 0.8192 | 0.8667 | 0.8697 |
| N | 5426 | 6901 | 6901 | 6736 | 6736 |
表3 稳健性检验结果
Table 3 Robustness test results
| PSM | 替换解释变量 | 替换解释变量 | 改变固定效应 | 改变固定效应 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1)Probit | (2)Probit | (3)Logit | (4)Probit | (5)Logit | |
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.7083*** (4.35) | 0.6511*** (4.23) | 1.1475*** (3.42) | ||
| key | 0.2712** (1.75) | 0.4925* (1.54) | |||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 省份固定效应 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.8458 | 0.8093 | 0.8192 | 0.8667 | 0.8697 |
| N | 5426 | 6901 | 6901 | 6736 | 6736 |
| (1)OLS | (2)Probit | (3)Logit | (4)OLS | (5)Probit | (6)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| subsidy | oversea | oversea | buscredit | oversea | oversea | |
| general | 0.0007*** (3.88) | 0.6458*** (4.94) | 1.1310*** (4.33) | 0.0173*** (4.97) | 0.6613*** (4.86) | 1.1830*** (4.34) |
| subsidy | 3.0672 (0.41) | 7.4515 (0.53) | ||||
| buscredit | 1.1986** (2.33) | 1.9766* (1.89) | ||||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.0384 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 0.2250 | 不适用 | 不适用 |
| Pseudo R2 | 不适用 | 0.8156 | 0.8244 | 不适用 | 0.7375 | 0.7515 |
| N | 7153 | 6901 | 6901 | 6896 | 6645 | 6645 |
表4 中介效应检验结果
Table 4 Mediating effect test results
| (1)OLS | (2)Probit | (3)Logit | (4)OLS | (5)Probit | (6)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| subsidy | oversea | oversea | buscredit | oversea | oversea | |
| general | 0.0007*** (3.88) | 0.6458*** (4.94) | 1.1310*** (4.33) | 0.0173*** (4.97) | 0.6613*** (4.86) | 1.1830*** (4.34) |
| subsidy | 3.0672 (0.41) | 7.4515 (0.53) | ||||
| buscredit | 1.1986** (2.33) | 1.9766* (1.89) | ||||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.0384 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 0.2250 | 不适用 | 不适用 |
| Pseudo R2 | 不适用 | 0.8156 | 0.8244 | 不适用 | 0.7375 | 0.7515 |
| N | 7153 | 6901 | 6901 | 6896 | 6645 | 6645 |
| (1)Probit | (2)Logit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 市场化程度较高 | 市场化程度较高 | 市场化程度较低 | 市场化程度较低 | |
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.2223 (1.11) | 0.4468 (1.09) | 0.8413*** (4.38) | 1.4232*** (3.69) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.8488 | 0.8499 | 0.8399 | 0.8466 |
| N | 3651 | 3651 | 3100 | 3100 |
表5 Heterogeneity test(一)
Table 5
| (1)Probit | (2)Logit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 市场化程度较高 | 市场化程度较高 | 市场化程度较低 | 市场化程度较低 | |
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.2223 (1.11) | 0.4468 (1.09) | 0.8413*** (4.38) | 1.4232*** (3.69) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.8488 | 0.8499 | 0.8399 | 0.8466 |
| N | 3651 | 3651 | 3100 | 3100 |
| (1)Probit | (2)Logit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 行业竞争较强 | 行业竞争较强 | 行业竞争较弱 | 行业竞争较弱 | |
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.4439** (2.05) | 0.7868** (1.98) | 0.3906 (1.57) | 0.7047 (1.41) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.7924 | 0.8086 | 0.7706 | 0.7685 |
| N | 2138 | 2138 | 1388 | 1388 |
表6 Heterogeneity test(二)
Table 6
| (1)Probit | (2)Logit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 行业竞争较强 | 行业竞争较强 | 行业竞争较弱 | 行业竞争较弱 | |
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.4439** (2.05) | 0.7868** (1.98) | 0.3906 (1.57) | 0.7047 (1.41) |
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.7924 | 0.8086 | 0.7706 | 0.7685 |
| N | 2138 | 2138 | 1388 | 1388 |
| (1)Probit | (2)Logit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | (5)Probit | (6)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.4630*** (2.56) | 0.7858** (2.21) | 0.2185 (0.69) | 0.4489 (0.74) | 0.3492* (1.84) | 0.6309* (1.72) |
| eu | -0.4661** (-2.26) | -0.8916** (-2.05) | ||||
| rd | -0.7201 (-1.18) | -1.2816 (-1.95) | ||||
| nx | -0.8550*** (-2.73) | -1.6742*** (-3.00) | ||||
| Policy_eu | 0.4726* (1.83) | 0.9047* (1.70) | ||||
| policy_rd | 1.9587** (2.68) | 3.1719** (2.17) | ||||
| policy_nx | 0.9132** (2.13) | 1.5922** (2.11) | ||||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.8175 | 0.8204 | 0.9278 | 0.9272 | 0.8520 | 0.8569 |
| N | 5312 | 5312 | 1161 | 1161 | 4169 | 4169 |
表7 调节效应检验结果
Table 7 Adjustment effect test results
| (1)Probit | (2)Logit | (3)Probit | (4)Logit | (5)Probit | (6)Logit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | oversea | |
| policy | 0.4630*** (2.56) | 0.7858** (2.21) | 0.2185 (0.69) | 0.4489 (0.74) | 0.3492* (1.84) | 0.6309* (1.72) |
| eu | -0.4661** (-2.26) | -0.8916** (-2.05) | ||||
| rd | -0.7201 (-1.18) | -1.2816 (-1.95) | ||||
| nx | -0.8550*** (-2.73) | -1.6742*** (-3.00) | ||||
| Policy_eu | 0.4726* (1.83) | 0.9047* (1.70) | ||||
| policy_rd | 1.9587** (2.68) | 3.1719** (2.17) | ||||
| policy_nx | 0.9132** (2.13) | 1.5922** (2.11) | ||||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.8175 | 0.8204 | 0.9278 | 0.9272 | 0.8520 | 0.8569 |
| N | 5312 | 5312 | 1161 | 1161 | 4169 | 4169 |
| (1)OLS | (2)OLS | (3)OLS | (4)OLS | (5)Probit | (6)Probit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lnthv | lnthv | equity | equity | completion | completion | |
| policy | 0.2088 (1.11) | -0.0621 (-0.28) | 35.0445*** (9.02) | 21.8496*** (5.14) | 1.0457*** (5.34) | 1.0912*** (4.72) |
| patent | -0.6842*** (-2.70) | -36.0933*** (-6.53) | 1.3102*** (4.11) | |||
| policy_patent | 0.5644* (1.75) | 27.5050*** (4.69) | -0.0377 (-0.07) | |||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.2169 | 0.2246 | 0.2039 | 0.3120 | 不适用 | 不适用 |
| Pseudo R2 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 0.1774 | 0.2821 |
| N | 589 | 589 | 589 | 589 | 646 | 646 |
表8 产业政策对跨境并购金额、股权及完成率影响的回归结果
Table 8 Regression results of the impact of industrial policy on the amount, equity and completion rate of cross-border M&A
| (1)OLS | (2)OLS | (3)OLS | (4)OLS | (5)Probit | (6)Probit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lnthv | lnthv | equity | equity | completion | completion | |
| policy | 0.2088 (1.11) | -0.0621 (-0.28) | 35.0445*** (9.02) | 21.8496*** (5.14) | 1.0457*** (5.34) | 1.0912*** (4.72) |
| patent | -0.6842*** (-2.70) | -36.0933*** (-6.53) | 1.3102*** (4.11) | |||
| policy_patent | 0.5644* (1.75) | 27.5050*** (4.69) | -0.0377 (-0.07) | |||
| 控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 年份固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| 行业固定效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.2169 | 0.2246 | 0.2039 | 0.3120 | 不适用 | 不适用 |
| Pseudo R2 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 不适用 | 0.1774 | 0.2821 |
| N | 589 | 589 | 589 | 589 | 646 | 646 |
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