• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 2519-2532.

• 科技发展战略与政策 • 上一篇    下一篇

地区经济不确定性、高技术产品出口与高质量发展

李佳霖,温金燕   

  1. 西安交通大学
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-22 修回日期:2024-01-22 出版日期:2024-12-15 发布日期:2024-12-15
  • 通讯作者: 李佳霖

Regional economic uncertainty, export of high-tech products and high-quality development

  • Received:2023-08-22 Revised:2024-01-22 Online:2024-12-15 Published:2024-12-15

摘要: 面对持续上升的经济不确定性,如何更好促进地区实现“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”的高质量发展是顺应时代要求、立足国家战略、面向人民需要的重要问题。本文从五大发展理念出发构建高质量发展指标体系,测算地区层面经济不确定性程度,并使用2002—2018年中国省级面板数据分析地区经济不确定性产生的影响,并探索高技术产品出口这一影响渠道。研究发现:(1)地区经济不确定性显著抑制高质量发展,且沿海地区经济不确定性对高质量发展的负面影响较之内陆地区更大;(2)高技术产品出口是地区经济不确定性影响高质量发展的重要渠道之一;(3)塑造高技术产品比较优势可以缓解地区经济不确定性对高质量发展的负面影响。进而提出,积极应对地区经济不确定性,协同多方力量化解高质量发展受到的冲击,同时促进高技术产品出口、充分发挥高技术产品比较优势以更好支撑地区高质量发展。

Abstract: In the face of rising economic uncertainty, how to better promote high-quality development under concepts of innovation, harmonization, green, openness and sharing in the region is an important issue that is complied with the requirements of current times, based on national strategies and oriented to the needs of the people. Due to the ongoing process of globalization and the increasing specialization of labor, international economic and trade activities have seen a tendency that policy formulation, trade promotion, and investment-driven initiatives with regions as the main body, leading to the strengthening of inter-regional interaction and development. Against this backdrop, the export of high-tech products has become crucial in promoting a healthy interaction between the economy, trade, science, and technology. It is also a new economic growth point for upgrading the level of foreign trade and promoting the structural transformation of regional economies. However, imports and exports are vulnerable to the significant impact of rising regional economic uncertainty, which interferes with economic and trade activities and affects high-quality development of the region. This paper constructs indices of high-quality development under the five development concepts by applying the factor analysis, measures the degree of economic uncertainty at the regional level using the HP filtering method after defining the connotation of regional economic uncertainty. Using provincial panel data from 2002 to 2018 to study the impact of regional economic uncertainty on high-quality development, and explore the impact of the channel of high-tech product export, several conclusions are found as follows: (1) Regional economic uncertainty significantly inhibits high-quality development, with the negative impact remaining stronger in coastal areas than in inland areas, while improvement of financial development, enhancement of human capital and infrastructure, and optimization of industrial structure can promote high-quality development. (2) The export of high-tech products can promote high-quality development of the region. However, regional economic uncertainty can hinder the export of high-tech products, resulting in a negative impact on high-quality development. In other words, one of the important channels through which economic uncertainty affects high-quality development is the export of high-tech products. (3) Comparative advantages of high-tech products can promote regional high-quality development. Shaping comparative advantages of high-tech products can alleviate the negative impact of regional economic uncertainty on high-quality development. The Paper further proposes some suggestions. (1) Regional development should actively respond to regional economic uncertainty, and cooperate with various forces to mitigate the shock on high-quality development. To reduce potential negative shocks and minimize the adverse effects of regional economic uncertainty on high-quality development, central and local governments need to actively introduce policies conducive to economic stabilization and be well-prepared for risks and problems arising from economic uncertainty. (2) Each region should formulate appropriate policies based on its endowments and comparative advantages to cope with economic uncertainty. To promote regional high-quality development and resolve the impacts of regional economic uncertainty, local government departments and relevant organizations at all levels should optimize the regional industrial structure, pay attention to the accumulation of human capital and the construction of infrastructure, and create a favorable financial competitive environment while maintaining economic stability. (3) It is also important to focus on the development of regional high-tech products and build comparative advantages in the area. Policy support should be increased to promote the export of high-tech products, to bring about spillover and learning effects from participation in international market competition. By constructing regional comparative advantages of high-tech products, improving quantity and quality of high-tech product exports, to drive the innovative development of related industries, thereby promoting high-quality development of the region.