• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10): 2186-2198.

• 前沿与观点 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国产业“换道超车”实现程度测度研究———基于汽车产业主流技术轨道的实证分析

宋晓晴1,杨武2,王玲3   

  1. 1. 中国政法大学
    2. 北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院
    3. 中国政法大学商学院;斯坦福大学可持续发展与全球竞争研究中心
  • 收稿日期:2024-09-04 修回日期:2025-03-06 出版日期:2025-10-15 发布日期:2025-10-15
  • 通讯作者: 王玲
  • 基金资助:
    我国专利密集型产业破解国外技术锁定的机理、路径与对策研究

Measurement of ‘Changing Lanes and Overtaking’ Achievement Degree in China's Industry--An Empirical Analysis of the Automotive Industry Mainstream Technology Track

  • Received:2024-09-04 Revised:2025-03-06 Online:2025-10-15 Published:2025-10-15

摘要: [目的/意义]目前我国以新能源汽车为代表的系列产业正处于发展变革的关键时期,把握“换道超车”的关键窗口期并及时识别“换道超车”实现程度对于我国破解传统产业核心技术路径锁定并实现高质量发展至关重要。[方法/过程]基于INNOJOY专利数据库,选取汽车产业中目前两条主流技术轨道,即传统燃油车技术轨道和锂电池汽车技术轨道作为研究对象,构建三维分析模型及其指标体系,应用熵权-TOPSIS法对中国及传统燃油汽车专利质量高水平国家进行关键核心专利的筛选及专利质量水平指数的测度。[结果/结论]结果表明,在传统燃油车技术轨道上,我国与传统燃油汽车高质量水平国家间的差距始终较大,无法在短期内实现技术赶超;在锂电池汽车技术轨道上,我国在全部关键核心专利的比较上仅落后于美国和日本,位列第三,在截至2024年7月为有权状态的关键核心专利的比较上超过日本并位居第二,在技术、经济、法律三维度比较中也均位居前三,因此可以确定我国已经初步实现了汽车产业的“换道超车”。本研究为后发国家及其后发产业“换道超车”实现可能性与未来发展可能方向提供了实证依据与参考。

Abstract: Since the initiation of the reform and opening-up policy, China has pursued a development strategy characterized by following the lead of advanced economies. This approach has resulted in China's long-term positioning at the lower end of the global value chain, which is dominated by developed countries. Consequently, China has faced significant challenges in achieving upward mobility within the value chain. Currently, many of China's industries are at a critical juncture of development and transformation, among these, the new energy vehicle industry stands out as the most dynamic sector, demonstrating considerable potential for China to achieve "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" development. Therefore, grasping the critical window period for "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" and ly identifying the extent of its realization are of vital importance for China to break through the path dependency of core technologies in traditional industries and to achieve high-quality development. Based on the INNOJOY patent database, this study selects two mainstream technological trajectories within the automotive industry as research objects: the technological trajectory of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles and that of lithium battery vehicles. A comprehensive three-dimensional analytical model, incorporating the dimensions of technology, economy, and law, along with its corresponding indicator system, is constructed to conduct a multidimensional analysis of the patent information related to these technological trajectories. The entropy weight method is employed to assign weights to each indicator, reflecting their relative importance. Subsequently, the TOPSIS method is utilized to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the value of each patent. This process results in the formation of a patent quality index for each country, which is then applied to compare the patent competitive advantages among different nations. The findings reveal that in the technological trajectory of traditional ICE vehicles, the gap between China and countries with high-quality ICE vehicle patents remains substantial. This gap is evident from multiple perspectives, including the overall and newly added key core patents, as well as from the aspects of total and valid patents. As a result, it appears unlikely that China will be able to achieve technological catch-up in the short term. In contrast, in the technological trajectory of lithium battery vehicles, China ranks third in the comparison of all key core patents, trailing only the United States and Japan. When considering the total index of patent quality for valid key core patents, China has surpassed Japan and now ranks second as of July 2024, notably, the annual increment of valid key core patents has consistently ranked second from 2012 to 2017. Furthermore, from the perspective of the patent quality index across the dimensions of technology, economy, and law, China consistently ranks in the top three, and the annual increment of valid key core patents has maintained a second-place position for 5-9 consecutive years from 2012 to 2017. These results indicate that China has preliminarily achieved "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" in the automotive industry. This study provides empirical evidence and reference for latecomer countries and their latecomer industries regarding the feasibility of "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" and potential future development directions.