数字产业创新对产业结构现代化的影响研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科技创新是“中国式现代化”建设的第一动力。基于“要素链-产业链-价值链”的逻辑框架,剖析数字产业创新助推产业结构现代化的内在机理,利用中国2009-2017年30个省份的面板数据展开实证检验。研究发现:中国数字产业创新水平呈“质”与“量”并驾齐驱的逐年上升趋势,但区域间差距较大,产生了“数字鸿沟”现象;2012年之前,中国经济结构存在“脱实向虚”倾向,进入新常态后,产业结构不断向着先进制造业和生产性服务业占比持续上升的现代服务经济转型;中国数字产业创新显著推动了产业结构现代化,该结论在采用工具变量、调整样本范围、替换主要解释变量、考虑遗漏变量后仍成立;数字产业创新对产业结构现代化的影响具有显著的区域异质性和时间异质性;数字产业发展和地区生产率提升是数字产业创新推动产业结构现代化的重要途径。上述研究结论为中国抢占数字经济发展机遇,构建现代产业体系提供经验证据。

关键词: 数字产业创新, 产业结构现代化, 中国式现代化, 数字经济, 科技创新

Abstract:

Scientific and technological innovation is the primary driving force for the construction of "Chinese path to modernization". This paper focuses on the core issue of whether digital industry innovation can promote the modernization of industrial structure. Firstly, we deconstruct the concept of industrial structure modernization and analyzes the internal mechanism of digital industry innovation to promote industrial structure modernization. The paper constructs the logical framework of "factor chain - industrial chain - value chain" and proposed that the modernization of industrial structure is promoting the transformation of industrial structure to the advanced level continuously and finally achieve a substantial improvement in the ability to obtain added value and international competitiveness, which based on the advanced factors at the micro level. Furthermore, it’s pointed out that the direct impact of digital industry innovation on social and economic activities is to promote the development of digital industry, and the indirect impact is to enable other industries to upgrade through digital technology. Through digital industrialization and industrial digitization, digital industry innovation achieves the upgrading of factors, the upgrading of industry and the increasing of added value, thus boosting the modernization of industrial structure.

Secondly, based on the explanation of the concept of industrial structure modernization in the theoretical analysis, the measurement index of industrial structure modernization is constructed from three dimensions: service-oriented level, the upgrading of industrial structure and the upgrading of structure of service industry. Some results can be seen from the characteristic fact chart of the average value of digital industry innovation and industrial structure modernization index at the national and regional level from 2009 to 2017, such as from the regional level, the innovation level of China's digital industry shows an upward trend of "quality" and "quantity" year by year, but there exists a large gap between regions which results in the phenomenon of "digital gap". From the perspective of time, China's economic structure had a tendency of " being diverted out of the real economy" before 2012. After entering the New Normal, the industrial structure has been transformed to a modern service economy in which the proportion of advanced manufacturing and producer services increases continuously.

Finally, the empirical test is carried out by using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2017 to evaluate the specific impact of digital industry innovation on industrial structure modernization. The results show that China's digital industry innovation can promote the development of advanced manufacturing and producer services while promoting the service-oriented transformation of industrial structure. It’s a kind of service-oriented transformation that rises to the high value-added link of the global value chain, that is, the modernization of industrial structure. The conclusion is still valid after adopting instrumental variables, adjusting sample range, replacing main explanatory variables, and considering the missing variables. At the same time, the impact of digital industry innovation on industrial structure modernization exists significant regional and time heterogeneity. Specifically, digital industry innovation has a greater impact on the central and western regions, bringing new development opportunities for the relatively backward regions. The influence of digital industry innovation on the upgrading of industrial structure and service industry has significant time heterogeneity. The mechanism test shows that the development of digital industry and the improvement of regional productivity are important ways to promote the modernization of industrial structure through digital industry innovation.

The research conclusions above have important implications for the innovative development of China's digital economy and the promotion of "Chinese-style modernization" as following: First, keep the proportion of manufacturing industry relatively stable, and do not regard the proportion of service industry as the only index of industrial modernization. Second, conquer the basic theories of digital technology and guide the innovation and development of the digital industry. Third, promote the deep integration of digital technology and the real economy, and promote the development of advanced manufacturing and producer services.

Key words: digital industry innovation, modernization of industrial structure, chinese path to modernization, digital economy, technological innovation

中图分类号:

F062.9

宋培, 白雪洁, 李琳, 艾阳. 数字产业创新对产业结构现代化的影响研究[J]. 科学学研究, 2024, 42(1): 170-182.

SONG Pei, BAI Xue-jie, LI Lin, AI Yang. Research on the impact of digital industry innovation on the modernization of industrial structure[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2024, 42(1): 170-182.

图/表 12

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变量	含义	观测值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
Dig	数字产业创新	270	8.115	1.733	3.219	11.948
Str	服务化水平	270	1.356	0.510	0.637	3.260
Ain	工业结构高级化	270	0.212	0.137	0.005	0.489
Ase	服务业结构高级化	270	0.389	0.062	0.283	0.624
Pgdp	经济发展程度	270	9.279	0.403	8.413	10.342
Human	人力资本水平	270	8.958	0.931	6.764	12.665
Gov	政府干预	270	0.257	0.115	0.110	0.758
FDI	外商直接投资	270	2.593	2.700	0.040	17.952
Ex	出口需求	270	14.837	15.326	1.162	68.284
Soe	国有经济比重	270	0.351	0.282	-0.310	2.902

变量	含义	观测值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
Dig	数字产业创新	270	8.115	1.733	3.219	11.948
Str	服务化水平	270	1.356	0.510	0.637	3.260
Ain	工业结构高级化	270	0.212	0.137	0.005	0.489
Ase	服务业结构高级化	270	0.389	0.062	0.283	0.624
Pgdp	经济发展程度	270	9.279	0.403	8.413	10.342
Human	人力资本水平	270	8.958	0.931	6.764	12.665
Gov	政府干预	270	0.257	0.115	0.110	0.758
FDI	外商直接投资	270	2.593	2.700	0.040	17.952
Ex	出口需求	270	14.837	15.326	1.162	68.284
Soe	国有经济比重	270	0.351	0.282	-0.310	2.902

变量	Str	Str	Ain	Ain	Ase	Ase
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Dig	0.203^*** (0.009)	0.202^*** (0.015)	0.006^*** (0.002)	0.010^*** (0.003)	0.015^*** (0.001)	0.018^*** (0.003)
Pgdp		-0.720^*** (0.147)		-0.087^*** (0.026)		0.004 (0.024)
Human		0.031 (0.031)		0.012^** (0.005)		-0.004 (0.005)
Gov		0.290 (0.334)		-0.279^*** (0.058)		-0.072 (0.056)
FDI		-0.006 (0.006)		0.001 (0.001)		0.001 (0.001)
Ex		-0.007^*** (0.002)		-0.001^** (0.000)		-0.001^*** (0.000)
Soe		0.045 (0.034)		0.001 (0.006)		0.011^* (0.006)
常数项	-0.289^*** (0.076)	6.153^*** (1.283)	0.161^*** (0.013)	0.917^*** (0.224)	0.266^*** (0.012)	0.269 (0.213)
固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R²	0.664	0.734	0.063	0.188	0.323	0.356
样本量	270	270	270	270	270	270

变量	Str	Str	Ain	Ain	Ase	Ase
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Dig	0.203^*** (0.009)	0.202^*** (0.015)	0.006^*** (0.002)	0.010^*** (0.003)	0.015^*** (0.001)	0.018^*** (0.003)
Pgdp		-0.720^*** (0.147)		-0.087^*** (0.026)		0.004 (0.024)
Human		0.031 (0.031)		0.012^** (0.005)		-0.004 (0.005)
Gov		0.290 (0.334)		-0.279^*** (0.058)		-0.072 (0.056)
FDI		-0.006 (0.006)		0.001 (0.001)		0.001 (0.001)
Ex		-0.007^*** (0.002)		-0.001^** (0.000)		-0.001^*** (0.000)
Soe		0.045 (0.034)		0.001 (0.006)		0.011^* (0.006)
常数项	-0.289^*** (0.076)	6.153^*** (1.283)	0.161^*** (0.013)	0.917^*** (0.224)	0.266^*** (0.012)	0.269 (0.213)
固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R²	0.664	0.734	0.063	0.188	0.323	0.356
样本量	270	270	270	270	270	270

变量	Str	Ain	Ase	Str	Ain	Ase
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Dig	0.203^*** (0.015)	0.010^*** (0.003)	0.018^*** (0.002)	0.169^*** (0.014)	0.008^*** (0.002)	0.015^*** (0.002)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
常数项	5.766^*** (1.264)	0.892^*** (0.218)	0.239 (0.210)	5.691^*** (1.324)	0.905^*** (0.223)	0.228 (0.215)
固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R²	0.737	0.196	0.350	0.715	0.189	0.342
样本量	270	270	270	270	270	270