• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6): 1129-1143.

• 热点议题 • 上一篇    下一篇

外部关税冲击、制造企业治理与创新韧性

杨维新1,杨云鹏2   

  1. 1. 复旦大学
    2. 上海交通大学
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-30 修回日期:2026-02-05 出版日期:2026-06-15 发布日期:2026-06-15
  • 通讯作者: 杨云鹏
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目;国家自然科学基金重点项目

External Tariff Shocks, Manufacturing Firm Governance, and Innovation Resilience

  • Received:2025-04-30 Revised:2026-02-05 Online:2026-06-15 Published:2026-06-15

摘要: 在大国博弈日益激烈的背景下,关税政策作为国际经济争端中的关键调控工具,其引发的政策不确定性对企业创新韧性产生深远影响。基于中国制造业A股上市公司数据,运用文本分析法构建核心解释变量,采用双重差分模型识别关税冲击对企业创新韧性的因果效应。实证结果表明:关税冲击显著增强中国制造业上市企业的创新韧性,印证“逆境激发创新”的理论观点。机制分析显示,这种影响通过宏观政策不确定性与微观公司治理的双重路径实现。研究进一步发现,连锁董事网络与管理层过度自信会强化创新韧性,而高管团队断裂带则会削弱该效应。本研究为理解关税冲击与创新韧性的内在关联提供新经验证据,对政策制定者应对贸易摩擦、营造创新友好型环境提供理论支持。

Abstract: In an increasingly fractious geopolitical landscape, the utilization of tariffs has emerged as a pivotal instrument within the arsenal of international economic conflicts. This strategy, characterized by the uncertainty it injects into the policy framework, exerts a substantial impact on the resilience of corporate innovation. The present research delves into this complex interplay by employing a comprehensive dataset comprising A-share listed manufacturing firms in China. Employing a meticulous approach, the study employs textual analysis to construct key explanatory variables and harnesses the robustness of the difference-in-differences methodology to discern the causal efficacy of tariff shocks on the innovation resilience of firms under scrutiny. The empirical findings elucidate a compelling relationship: tariff shocks, often characterized by the imposition or withdrawal of protective tariffs, have been demonstrated to significantly enhance the innovative capacity of Chinese manufacturing firms. This outcome is in line with the widely accepted "adversity breeds innovation" hypothesis, which posits that exposure to adverse economic conditions can serve as a catalyst for increased innovation. Furthermore, the analysis delves deeper into the underlying mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, revealing a dual-channel transmission effect. The first channel is rooted in macroeconomic policy uncertainty, which can spur firms to adapt and innovate as they navigate through a volatile regulatory environment. The second channel is grounded in internal corporate governance practices, indicating that effective governance structures can bolster resilience by facilitating informed decision-making and fostering a culture of innovation. An intriguing aspect of this analysis pertains to the role of directorate networks and managerial hubs within the firm. The study discerns that these elements serve as reinforcing agents, amplifying the resilience against the disruptions caused by tariff shocks. Conversely, it identifies that executive team faultlines can detract from this resilience, suggesting that the cohesive nature of leadership within the firm is a critical determinant of its ability to innovate in the face of such shocks. In conclusion, this investigation offers novel empirical insights into the intricate relationship between tariff shocks and innovation resilience within the context of Chinese manufacturing firms. These findings not only provide theoretical underpinnings for understanding the mechanisms through which economic stressors impact innovation but also offer practical guidance for policymakers navigating the treacherous waters of trade disputes. By elucidating the factors that can enhance or diminish resilience, the study contributes to the formulation of policy frameworks that are conducive to the cultivation of an innovative ecosystem within the broader context of international economic relations.

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