关键词: 关税冲击, 政策不确定性, 创新韧性, 企业治理

Abstract:

In an increasingly fractious geopolitical landscape, the utilization of tariffs has emerged as a pivotal instrument within the arsenal of international economic conflicts. This strategy, characterized by the uncertainty it injects into the policy framework, exerts a substantial impact on the resilience of corporate innovation. The present research delves into this complex interplay by employing a comprehensive dataset comprising A-share listed manufacturing firms in China. Employing a meticulous approach, the study employs textual analysis to construct key explanatory variables and harnesses the robustness of the difference-in-differences methodology to discern the causal efficacy of tariff shocks on the innovation resilience of firms under scrutiny. The empirical findings elucidate a compelling relationship: tariff shocks, often characterized by the imposition or withdrawal of protective tariffs, have been demonstrated to significantly enhance the innovative capacity of Chinese manufacturing firms. This outcome is in line with the widely accepted "adversity breeds innovation" hypothesis, which posits that exposure to adverse economic conditions can serve as a catalyst for increased innovation. Furthermore, the analysis delves deeper into the underlying mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, revealing a dual-channel transmission effect. The first channel is rooted in macroeconomic policy uncertainty, which can spur firms to adapt and innovate as they navigate through a volatile regulatory environment. The second channel is grounded in internal corporate governance practices, indicating that effective governance structures can bolster resilience by facilitating informed decision-making and fostering a culture of innovation. An intriguing aspect of this analysis pertains to the role of directorate networks and managerial hubs within the firm. The study discerns that these elements serve as reinforcing agents, amplifying the resilience against the disruptions caused by tariff shocks. Conversely, it identifies that executive team faultlines can detract from this resilience, suggesting that the cohesive nature of leadership within the firm is a critical determinant of its ability to innovate in the face of such shocks. In conclusion, this investigation offers novel empirical insights into the intricate relationship between tariff shocks and innovation resilience within the context of Chinese manufacturing firms. These findings not only provide theoretical underpinnings for understanding the mechanisms through which economic stressors impact innovation but also offer practical guidance for policymakers navigating the treacherous waters of trade disputes. By elucidating the factors that can enhance or diminish resilience, the study contributes to the formulation of policy frameworks that are conducive to the cultivation of an innovative ecosystem within the broader context of international economic relations.

Key words: tariff shocks, policy uncertainty, innovation resilience, corporate governance